MSLD 632_January 2019_2474

Decision-making can be a difficult process, no matter how simple the decision; however, when the decision is complex and involves more people and moving parts, deciding is quite difficult. To bring ease to the decision-making process, Hoch, Kunreuther & Gunther outlined various tools and approaches that can be used to help with this process. I will focus on three of these tools and then discuss their applicability within my organization. As I have stated in a few of our assignments, my organization, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), experienced dynamic organizational change approximately 6 years ago. Much like the changes experienced then, we are currently in the middle of change; as a result, complex and difficult decisions must be made. As our leaders are making decisions that will impact many, I hope to see Hoch, et al.’s, decision-making tools at work. Hoch, et al., (2001) noted that listening to stakeholders is key (p.126). As we navigate through model changes...

When it comes to choices and options, I am one who prefers fewer choices. At first glance, it’s nice to see all my option; however, when I must decide, I’m a bit overwhelmed by the unlimited options. I know we live in a world where the sky is the limit, but this girl needs some boundaries! For example, when I was choosing paint colors for my house, the colors started to look the same; I had too many options. When deciding, in addition to research, I concretized. Iyengar (2011), noted that for people to understand the differences between their choices, they must grasp the consequences associated with each choice (How to Make Choosing Easier). When we feel the consequences, it makes choosing easier; for instances, I knew that I would have to spend more cash on a good, reliable brand of paint if I wanted pleasing results. One of the other methods that helped me decide is categorization. Categorizing my paint by brand removed so much pressure. While there were still so many color option...

Hoch, Chapter 3 discusses the power of everyday reasoning in multistage decision-making. The text discusses the way that researchers solve multistage problems through the application of formulas (dynamic programming models) that provide the most significant chances of success.  Critically think about your own decision-making process and reflect on the process you use in relation to the decision-making process recommendations outlined in the article. How would you apply optimal dynamic decision analysis to predict the future impact of today's decision? Additionally, would the conclusions reached on pages 57ff. of the text improve your decision-making? How and why? According to Hoch & Kunreuther (2005), “when maximizing total utility over a horizon, decision makers are assumed to look ahead to all future periods and anticipate all possible choices and outcomes” (p. 44). Optimal dynamic programming holds this assumption as a problem-solving fou...